Medium term trend in US Treasuries is turning bullish

BofA Merrill Lynch notes ....

• We have been near term US Treasury bulls from 5yrs and out, but now evidence says that the medium term trend is turning bullish as well. Looking specifically at 10yr yields, the break below 1.927% (Feb-26 low) clears the way for a move to 1.840% with an increasing likelihood thatwe will return all the way back to the Jan-20 low at 1.636%. 
  
  
• Going forward, we will look to buy dips. Pullbacks should be limited to 2.040%/2.047%, while bears need a break of 2.148% (the Mar-13 high) to gain control and invalidate that this medium term bullish setup (we do not think that this will happen). The long end of the curve should continue to lead the way lower in yield and as such, we continue to like 5s30s flatteners. 
  
  
• Indeed, we choose to disregard yesterday's Bullish Engulfing Candle given today's the lack of upside follow through, the failure to break old Triangle support, now resistance, at 113.5bps and the fact that the long term flattening trend remains intact. As such, we reiterate our target for 88.8bps and lower our trailing stop to 114bps.