Mercedes-Benz Group AG lowered its 2026 earnings outlook Oct. 27, citing weaker conditions in China and expected higher fourth-quarter costs, including material costs, as pressures on profitability.
Mercedes-Benz Cars sold 297,000 vehicles in China from January through September, down 29% year over year. Third-quarter sales in the country fell 31% to 86,800. The company pointed to difficult passenger-car market conditions and intense competition. Mercedes-Benz Group AG board member for Sales & Customer Experience Mathias Geisen said car sales outside China had grown for three consecutive quarters in 2026.
The company now expects Group EBIT to match the 2025 level, replacing earlier guidance for a result “significantly above” the prior year. It cut the Mercedes-Benz Cars adjusted return on sales forecast to 2%–3%, from 3%–5%. The revised notice did not give a specific euro target for 2026 Group EBIT.
Reported Group EBIT was €5.82 billion in 2025, while adjusted EBIT was €8.235 billion. When it set its earlier outlook, Mercedes-Benz compared expected 2026 Group EBIT with reported 2025 earnings, which included restructuring charges. Industrial-business free cash flow is now expected to be significantly below 2025, rather than slightly below. Forecasts remained at 8%–10% for Vans’ adjusted return on sales and 12%–14% for Financial Services’ adjusted return on equity.
Preliminary, unaudited third-quarter figures showed Group EBIT of €1.77 billion, compared with the company-listed consensus of €1.6 billion. Cars’ adjusted return on sales was 2.5%. Industrial-business free cash flow was €172 million, below the listed consensus of €422 million. Mercedes-Benz Cars sold 407,200 vehicles worldwide in the quarter, down 8% year over year.
The company is scheduled to publish its full third-quarter results and interim report Wednesday, Oct. 28.
