Most Diwali 2025 brokerage recommendations lost value in a review by Indian financial news outlet Mint, although 53.4% beat the Sensex, showing that relative outperformance does not guarantee a gain.
Mint said its analysis covered 148 recommendations from 40 brokerages between Oct. 20, 2025, and Oct. 30, 2026. Nearly 63% declined, while 37% recorded positive returns, the outlet reported.
The figures describe two different comparisons: whether a recommendation gained or lost value, and whether it performed better than the benchmark. Because the Sensex also fell, a pick could lose less than the index and still count as an outperformer.
Mint reported an 11.7% decline in the Sensex over the period. Yahoo Finance historical data lists closing levels of 84,363.37 on Oct. 20, 2025, and 74,459.53 on Oct. 30, 2026. That is a calculated drop of 11.74%, consistent with Mint’s rounded figure.
Mint counted 45 recommendations that fell more than 25%, compared with 23 that gained more than 25%. The outlet also reported that 75 picks declined more than 10%, while 35 rose more than 10%.
Results differed by sector. Consumer durables recommendations had a median loss of 32%, and infrastructure and engineering picks had a median loss of 24%. Power recommendations posted a median gain of 10%, according to Mint.
The brokerage reports used different formats. HDFC Securities presented a 10-stock basket with a horizon through the next Diwali. Separately, StockHolding Services Limited published a 15-stock report dated Oct. 15, 2025.
Vallum Capital senior analyst Lokesh Manik told Mint, “A Diwali date is a ritual, not an investment reason.” Mint also quoted Qode Advisors’ Rishabh Nahar, who said optimism around a widely recommended stock may already be reflected in its price.
Mint’s comparison with earlier Diwali lists found that 80% of 45 recommendations from 2023 gained as the Sensex rose about 22%. For 2024, Mint reported gains in 58% of 59 picks while the index advanced 3%.
