Most Americans Oppose Election Betting on Prediction Markets, Poll Finds

A majority of Americans oppose betting on US elections, military operations and government decisions through prediction markets, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, highlighting public concerns as regulators consider new rules for the rapidly expanding industry.

Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to wager on political outcomes, economic policies and sporting events. While the companies argue their markets provide accurate forecasts and opportunities to hedge risks, critics warn about potential insider trading, market manipulation and national security threats.

The Reuters/Ipsos survey, conducted September 30 through October 5, found that 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposed betting on election results.

Opposition extended beyond elections, with 65% of respondents rejecting wagers on US military actions and 63% opposing bets on government policy announcements or decisions. Only 8% and 9%, respectively, supported those activities.

Concerns were particularly strong regarding government officials participating in political prediction markets. Approximately 93% of Democrats and 89% of Republicans considered it inappropriate for members of Congress or their staff to wager on political events.

Regulatory scrutiny has intensified following reports of suspicious trading activity. Reuters previously identified more than 150 Polymarket International accounts potentially linked to trading on confidential military information. Meanwhile, Kalshi has taken enforcement action against political candidates accused of violating its trading restrictions.

Both companies maintain that they actively monitor suspicious transactions and cooperate with authorities to prevent misconduct.

The Trump administration has supported developing federal regulations for prediction markets, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission asserting authority over event-based contracts.

However, state regulators argue these platforms facilitate gambling and should comply with state gambling laws. Legal experts expect the jurisdictional dispute could eventually reach the Supreme Court.

The survey found that approximately three-quarters of Americans consider prediction market wagering a form of gambling, while just 8% disagreed.

Even traditional sports betting faced mixed public sentiment, with 43% opposing it and 29% expressing support.

Polymarket defended the industry's value, saying prediction markets provide reliable information and that more than 90% of platform visits involve viewing markets rather than trading.

The nationwide online Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,506 US adults and carried a margin of error of approximately two percentage points.

The findings underscore the regulatory challenges facing prediction markets as industry growth continues despite widespread public skepticism.