A National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) paper estimates that the Great Recession drove the U.S. average annual, age-adjusted mortality rate about 2% lower for at least 10 years, an input to its welfare analysis.
Amy Finkelstein, Matthew J. Notowidigdo and Enzo Profili derive the national estimate with a dynamic factor model of mortality. The NBER dates the recession from December 2007 to June 2009. Their calibrated welfare model compares mortality effects with the consumption losses estimated in the paper.
A separate 2024 NBER study by Finkelstein, Notowidigdo, Frank Schilbach and Jonathan Zhang estimated that an unemployment increase comparable to the Great Recession's was associated with a 2.3% decline in the average annual, age-adjusted mortality rate lasting at least 10 years. The earlier researchers studied areas facing different levels of recession severity; the 2026 team says its finding is close, although it uses another method. The comparison gives a similar picture, but the figures come from different research designs.
The earlier study found mortality declines across causes of death and concentrated among people with a high school education or less. Those 65 and older represented about three-quarters of the total reduction, while lower air pollution was an important mechanism identified by the team. Its authors also said mortality effects mattered especially in welfare estimates for older people and people with less education.
For the new paper, the authors use a calibrated welfare model to compare the estimated gain attached to lower mortality with the loss linked to reduced consumption. They describe the mortality-related gain as significant relative to the consumption-side loss. The paper's accessible abstract does not say whether the mortality gain fully offsets or exceeds the consumption loss, and provides no net welfare figure.
The institute says it releases these studies for feedback while they remain outside peer review. Tyler Cowen included the study in a seven-link Oct. 25 post on Marginal Revolution.
