Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan began coverage of National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) shares with Overweight ratings and price targets above the Oct. 30 close, NDTV Profit reported, tying the calls partly to the exchange's options business.
Market data on The Economic Times' website put NSE shares' Oct. 30 close at ₹1,782.10. NDTV Profit said Morgan Stanley set a target of ₹2,315, while JPMorgan's was ₹2,130; it calculated implied upside of about 30% and nearly 20%, respectively, from the close.
The report said Morgan Stanley expects NSE's revenue and normalized profit after tax to rise at a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY27–FY29, and its index-options share to stabilize around 65%. JPMorgan forecasts adjusted profit after tax growth of about 14% CAGR over those fiscal years and EBITDA margins of 75.3% in FY27 and 77.1% in FY29, NDTV Profit reported.
NSE's draft prospectus says it had 92.99% of cash-market turnover and 99.79% of equity-futures turnover in FY26, which ended March 31, 2026. Equity-options premium turnover stood at 74.71%. That figure covers equity options measured by premium turnover, a different measure from the index-options share in Morgan Stanley's reported forecast.
NDTV Profit said the analysts' investment rationale includes households moving more savings into financial assets and wider retail participation. NSE's prospectus put financial assets at 46.74% of gross household savings in FY24, up from 39.59% in FY12. Its investor presentation showed unique registered investors rising from 59 million in FY22 to 129 million in FY26. The presentation also described growth in trading, clearing and other business lines over the same period.
The prospectus warns that derivatives trading and NSE's market share could be affected by changes to weekly-expiry rules set by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), higher securities transaction taxes and competition. NSE's board is scheduled to consider Q2 FY27 results on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
