USDAsia crosses are mostly trading in their broad ranges since August. Activity data this week will likely continue to paint a challenging growth picture for the region. Without a meaningful turnaround in China and EM demand, and with G2 policy divergence set to drive further EURUSD weakness, USDAsia is expected to resume its climb eventually.
Indeed, the upward USD momentum has picked up against some Asian EM currencies. China has in recent weeks been gradually pushing CNY fixings lower versus USD, and the latest fixing is at the weakest level since 28 August, or about a mere 0.3% away from the post 11-August devaluation lows. Ahead of the SDR decision China may have been reluctant to allow a larger depreciation in order avoid trade partner criticism.
"We see a risk of China further loosening its grip on the CNY after the IMF Board review (Monday), and allow additional depreciation of its currency going into 2016", notes Barclays.
Such a move would likely drag other Asian currencies lower. While the INR is typically correlated to the CNY, the recent pick up in portfolio outflows is pushing USDINR towards its September highs.
In terms of data releases, China's NBS PMI and the Caixin manufacturing PMIs (Tuesday) will provide a gauge of November activity - a marginal decline is expected in both measures (Barclays: 49.7 for NBS PMI, 49.9 for Caixin PMI). India is scheduled to release its Q3 GDP (Monday); growth of 7.5% is expected.
The RBI (Tuesday) is expected to keep policy rates on hold, given a lack of macro triggers since the September 50bp cut. In Korea, we receive the Q3 final GDP print, October IP and November exports (Tuesday; Barclays: -10%y/y).
