Quotes from Unicredit: We expect the Norwegian February CPI this morning higher than consensus at 2.2% (vs. Bloomberg consensus: 2.1%; prior: 2.0%). This will certainly be one of the numbers the Norges Bank will be looki…
We expect the Norwegian February CPI this morning higher than consensus at 2.2% (vs. Bloomberg consensus: 2.1%; prior: 2.0%).
This will certainly be one of the numbers the Norges Bank will be looking at when it meets on 19 March. Even if February inflation is in line with consensus expectations, we think the money market might reassess its current expectations of interest-rate developments, which currently price in a 25bp cut by June.
While recent economic data out of Norway have shown some signs of weakness, they were far from devastating. The Norges Bank might therefore well leave the depo rate at 1.25%.
We think a positive surprise in inflation might eventually lead to a shift in rate-cut expectations for the remainder of the year. This would speak in favor NOK support in the medium term.
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