Netflix will report third-quarter results Oct. 20 after Apptopia estimated a rise in U.S. app-user churn, offering a measure of engagement as the streaming company projects double-digit revenue growth.
Apptopia estimated that its churn measure rose 16.6% from a year earlier in the third quarter, after a 7.8% year-over-year rise in the second. Under its method, a user enters the churn category after 30 days without opening the app, following use during the previous 30-day period. The measure does not count canceled paid subscriptions.
The firm also estimated 7.4 million Netflix app downloads in the United States and Canada during the third quarter, down 20% from a year earlier. Among U.S. daily active users, however, average time spent in the app rose to 73.2 minutes a day from 70.2 minutes a year earlier, Apptopia estimated.
Netflix's July 16 shareholder letter projected third-quarter revenue of $12.86 billion, up 11.7% from a year earlier. The company also forecast a 33.2% operating margin, compared with 28.2% a year earlier.
Netflix reported more than 97 billion hours of viewing worldwide in the first half of 2026, up 2% year over year. That total covers a different period and audience from Apptopia's third-quarter measure of U.S. mobile app use.
In another measure of competition for viewers' time, Nielsen said YouTube accounted for 14.2% of viewing on U.S. television sets during its July measurement period.
Netflix's 2026 plan assigns just over 5% of content spending to live programming, which it expects to contribute about 1% of viewing hours. The company said live events accounted for six of its 10 largest new-member signup days over the preceding five years. Netflix also projects about $3 billion in advertising revenue this year, roughly double the prior year's amount.
Netflix plans to post its results at about 4:01 p.m. ET on Oct. 20. A management video interview is scheduled for 4:45 p.m. ET.
