U.S. mortgage originations reached $595 billion in Q3 2026, while scores near the lower end of the new-loan pool declined, offering a measure of housing-credit activity, the New York Fed reported.
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data issued its quarterly household debt and credit report on Nov. 10. Its mortgage-origination measure includes purchase loans and refinancings newly recorded in consumer credit files. It tracks new lending rather than all mortgage balances outstanding. The report also said total household debt grew by $334 billion, or 1.8%, to $19.1 trillion.
Within the new-mortgage score distribution, the 25th-percentile reading fell six points and the 10th-percentile reading dropped three. The 25th percentile marks the point at or below which one-quarter of scores fall; the 10th percentile marks the point for one in 10.
In a Nov. 10 review for CalculatedRisk, Bill McBride described recent originations as concentrated among higher-scoring borrowers. He wrote that a large share went to people with scores above 760, while very few borrowers below 660 and almost none below 620 received mortgages. McBride cited solid underwriting as one reason for that pattern. He contrasted the current score mix with the 2003-06 housing-bubble period and has argued that 1978-82 offers a useful historical comparison.
McBride’s review also pointed to payment stress. Transitions from current mortgage status to serious delinquency, defined as 90 or more days late, increased in Q3 2026 and over several years, he said. He noted that most borrowers who become briefly late return to current status. Movement into 30- to 60-day delinquency has recently stabilized and remains below pre-pandemic levels, after rising as mortgage rates climbed, according to McBride. Foreclosures also increased during Q3 but remained below pre-pandemic levels, his review said.
