The latest New York Times/Siena University polls put Democrats ahead in nearly every Senate battleground, lifting Nate Silver’s estimate of Democratic control of the chamber into the 80s as the U.S. election approaches.
In a Monday, Nov. 2, analysis for Silver Bulletin, Silver described the surveys as the presumptively final set from New York Times/Siena University. The polling covered seven states. Silver said Alaska offered a less favorable signal for Democrats in an otherwise strong set of results for the party.
Before the polls, Silver said his FLIPR model had been near a 75% chance of Democratic Senate control, the point it labels “Likely D.” He said the estimate entered the 80s for the first time after the new surveys, though their effect on the model was smaller than he expected.
Silver wrote that FLIPR gives substantial weight to New York Times/Siena while adjusting for pollsters’ recurring patterns. The model had already accounted for the pollster’s tendency to produce more favorable numbers for Democrats this election cycle. Silver said the new results largely followed trends FLIPR had detected earlier. He also cited an 11-point Democratic lead on The New York Times’ generic congressional ballot, a separate measure from the Senate contests.
Earlier New York Times/Siena surveys had shown Republican Pete Ricketts leading by six points in Nebraska and Republican Ashley Moody leading by six points in Florida. Silver noted those results alongside the new polls, which he said pointed toward a strong year for Democrats.
Silver said polling error could still change the forecast or lead the model to identify the wrong states as changing party control. The coming election will provide the test of whether FLIPR’s latest estimate matches the Senate results.
