Nigeria is pursuing petrol relief for households as rising crude prices improve its export and government revenue prospects while pushing up domestic fuel costs.
Against the backdrop of the Iran war, Brent crude averaged $114.16 a barrel in September, up from $70.89 in February, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). That is an increase of about 61%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expected higher oil and gas prices to benefit Nigeria’s export receipts and public revenue.
The cost to drivers has also risen. BusinessDay’s September checks at fuel outlets in Lagos and Abuja put petrol at about 1,350 naira per liter, compared with roughly 830 naira before the war. Its checks found diesel above 1,770 naira per liter. Those are retail prices, separate from the cost ceiling the government is negotiating.
The IMF’s 2026 Article IV staff report, completed May 7 and released in June, said petrol prices had risen 22.5% and diesel prices 16% in March from prewar levels. It found that Nigeria’s position as a net exporter of refined fuel had not prevented global price changes from reaching local consumers.
In that earlier report, IMF staff estimated in their baseline scenario that the war would shave 0.3 percentage point off 2026 growth. The scenario assumed disruptions would fade by mid-2026. Staff also warned that more expensive fuel and agricultural inputs could add to inflation and deepen pressure on poorer households.
The September inflation figures, released Oct. 15 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), showed annual headline inflation easing to 14.63% from 15.39% in August. Food inflation edged up to 19.59% from 19.57%. BusinessDay noted that the readings cannot isolate the war’s effect, because conditions within Nigeria and exchange-rate changes also influence prices.
On Oct. 9, the government said the retail arm of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited would give up its petrol margin and begin selling at cost within 30 days. It also announced plans for forward crude sales to domestic refineries and said it was negotiating a 1,350-naira-per-liter ceiling on petrol’s landing or ex-gantry cost. Refiners and importers would initially bear costs above that proposed ceiling. The government said their ability to recover those costs would depend on future crude prices or exchange-rate movements, and that the ceiling would be reviewed monthly.
