Nippon Steel lifted its FY2026 profit forecast by about 52% to ¥440 billion, with stronger U.S. Steel expectations and an Arkansas tax credit contributing to the increase, although the credit brings no cash benefit in the fiscal year.
The company now expects profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥440 billion for the year ending March 31, 2027, compared with its previous forecast of ¥290 billion. The ¥150 billion change represents about 52% of the earlier estimate.
Nippon Steel also raised its forecast for underlying business profit, a separate measure in its reporting, by ¥70 billion to at least ¥770 billion. Its projection for U.S. Steel, including Nippon Steel Slovakia (NSSK), increased by ¥50 billion to ¥230 billion or more. The company pointed to demand, steel prices and gains from closer operational coordination as factors supporting that outlook. Its forecast bridge assigns another ¥20 billion to the raw-material business and other items.
The revised profit estimate incorporates a ¥96.1 billion Arkansas tax credit tied to U.S. Steel’s Big River 2 electric arc furnace investment. Nippon Steel recognized the ¥96.1 billion credit in its first-half results as a deferred tax asset and a reduction in income tax expense. The cash benefit is expected in later years, leaving FY2026 with no cash benefit from the credit.
For the six months ended Sept. 30, 2026, Nippon Steel reported ¥262.9 billion in profit attributable to owners of the parent, versus a ¥113.3 billion loss in the same period a year earlier. In a separate report, Reuters said Chief Financial Officer Takahiko Iwai identified U.S. Steel as the main factor behind the forecast revision.
The company’s presentation showed domestic environmental factors weighing by ¥20 billion, offset by a ¥20 billion contribution from group companies. It said the pressure included higher raw-material and fuel costs that had not been passed through to some customers, along with typhoon and heavy-rain impacts. Nippon Steel said it wants to reach its FY2030 U.S. Steel underlying-business-profit target of at least ¥300 billion ahead of schedule.
