Nomura expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise rates twice by March 2027, lifting its deposit rate to 3.00%, above the most common peak forecast in a Reuters poll.
Nomura’s public outlook places the increases in December 2026 and March 2027, adding a total of 50 basis points to the current 2.50% deposit rate. The bank linked its forecast to continued energy-cost pressure associated with the Iran war and resilience in euro-area economic activity.
The ECB has not confirmed that path. After raising its three key rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 10, it set the deposit rate at 2.50% from Sept. 16. The central bank said future decisions would depend on incoming data and be made one meeting at a time, without a preset rate commitment.
A Reuters poll conducted Oct. 5–8 found that 70 of 73 economists expected the ECB to hold rates at its Oct. 29 meeting, while 64 of 73 anticipated a 25-basis-point increase in December. Among the 70 respondents who gave a peak-rate forecast, 40 expected 2.75% and 24 expected 3.00%.
FXStreet reported that Nomura analysts also expected an Oct. 29 hold and viewed market pricing of around 75 basis points of increases by September 2027 as excessive. Reuters separately reported market pricing of nearly three increases by the end of 2027; the two estimates cover different time horizons.
The ECB’s September projections put average euro-area headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. The bank’s next policy decision is scheduled for Thursday, Oct. 29, followed by a meeting on Dec. 16–17.
