Norway’s oil investment likely to rise in 2019

The fourth quarter’s oil investment survey in Norway indicated that oil companies expect investments of 175.3 billion NOK next year, a 21.4 percent rise from the fourth quarter count last year. Norges Bank expect oil investments to rise 10.8 percent next year in terms of volume.

The oil investment survey for this year indicated that oil companies in the fourth quarter expected investments of NOK 155.5 billion. The expectations for this year are up 3.1 percent year-on-year given the fourth quarter estimate for last year. Norges Bank expects oil investments to rise 2.5 percent this year in terms of volume.

The rise in expected oil investments for next year appears more solid than Norges Bank’s expectations at first glance. Nevertheless, the survey possibly exaggerated the rise from fourth quarter last year to fourth quarter this year, as 7 new projects were included in the survey between fourth quarter last year and the first quarter this year, noted DNB Markets in a research report.

“If one assumes unchanged estimates for 2019 in the Q1 survey, the increase from 2018 to 2019 is reduced from 21.4 percent to 9.5 percent, which is more or less in line with Norges Bank’s expectations for volume growth in 2019. Nevertheless, the positive outlook for oil investments next year supports our view that Norges Bank will hike the key policy rate to 1.00 percent in March”, added DNB Markets.