Norwegian unemployment to have dropped sharply in August, retail sales likely remained low in July

Norwegian employment data for the month of August is set to release this week. According to a Nordea Bank research report, registered unemployment is expected to have dropped sharply after the surprise rise in the prior month. Meanwhile, retail sales are expected to have stayed low.

Registered unemployment had risen by 3000 person in July. This was on the contrary to the trend of a monthly fall by 500-1000 persons and to the Norges Bank’s forecast. The labor market officials had stated that the rise was partially because of new registration routines and partially due to a change in the timing of measurement.

The effect of the timing should be reversed in August and that is why unemployment is expected to have dropped by as much as 3000 persons, stated Nordea Bank. The level would still be a bit above the central bank’s forecast. That is mainly because of new registration routines that signify more of those actual being out work is covered by statistic. That is unlikely to have any effect on monetary policy.

Meanwhile, retail sales had dropped 2.9 percent sequentially in June. Sales are expected to have remained at a rather low level.

“Our forecast is 0.3 percent m/m while consensus is 1 percent. Our forecast means that retail sales will be 0.3 percent below July last year compared to an average growth at 1.4 percent y/y so far this year”, added Nordea Bank.