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Nuvama Forecasts $1.7 Billion in Gross Inflows From MSCI India Additions

The brokerage also estimates $263 million in outflows if ICICI Prudential Life Insurance and PI Industries leave the index.

Updated 2 min read
Commuters pass the Bombay Stock Exchange building on Dalal Street in Mumbai, India. / TokenPost.ai
Commuters pass the Bombay Stock Exchange building on Dalal Street in Mumbai, India. / TokenPost.ai

Four Indian stocks could draw a combined $1.705 billion if added to MSCI’s Global Standard Index, based on Nuvama estimates reported by LiveMint and Financial Express ahead of Wednesday’s review results.

The estimates put potential inflows at $653 million for Coforge, $498 million for Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), $300 million for Adani Green Energy and $254 million for Meesho. Together, the projected inflows total $1.705 billion, or about $1.7 billion.

Nuvama also estimates possible outflows of $145 million from ICICI Prudential Life Insurance and $118 million from PI Industries. Those figures amount to $263 million in projected outflows and leave about $1.442 billion in net flows if all six forecast changes occur. CNBC-TV18, in a report carried by TradingView, cited a lower $143 million outflow estimate for ICICI Prudential Life Insurance; the net calculation here uses the $145 million figure reported by LiveMint and Financial Express.

The figures are brokerage forecasts, not confirmed index changes or flows. MSCI’s public announcements page still showed its review schedule notice, rather than the November results.

If MSCI confirms the forecast changes, funds that track its benchmarks may adjust their holdings to reflect the new line-up. The trading involved would depend on the final index weights assigned to the stocks and each fund’s rebalancing decisions.

The estimates follow an earlier EconoTimes report on JM Financial’s forecast of about $1.4 billion in potential net passive flows, which also identified LIC, Meesho and Coforge as possible additions.

MSCI scheduled its review announcement for shortly after 5 p.m. ET Wednesday (22:00 UTC). The index provider says changes will take effect as of the close of Nov. 30, and its review calendar lists Dec. 1 as the effective date.

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