A drawdown in global oil stocks is keeping refined-fuel supply tight, while OMV’s stronger third-quarter margins show how those constraints are affecting refinery economics worldwide.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global observed inventories, including crude and refined products, were 509 million barrels below their end-February level by the end of September. The decline was equivalent to 2.4 million barrels a day. That global measure does not specify the markets OMV Chief Executive Emma Delaney discussed in an interview with The National.
The IEA expects oil-market balances to remain in deficit through the end of 2026. It forecasts constrained supplies of middle distillates, including diesel and gasoil, well into 2027, and said replenishing depleted gasoil stocks beyond typical seasonal movements was unlikely before the second half of that year.
OMV’s clean CCS Operating Result rose 68% year over year to €2.117 billion in the third quarter of 2026. Its European refining indicator margin climbed to $37.50 per barrel from $11.50 a year earlier, while the Fuels segment’s clean CCS Operating Result increased to €1.124 billion from €413 million.
OMV linked the higher margin to stronger price spreads for gasoline and middle distillates, alongside restricted refined-product supply amid the Middle East conflict and a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The company said further attacks on Russian refinery infrastructure added pressure to global supply.
The National reported that Delaney warned low oil and fuel stocks could extend the effects of supply disruptions on global refining markets. She described stocks in some markets as at “historic low levels,” but did not identify those markets in the interview.
The IEA said record diesel prices were pushing up goods costs and affecting real incomes, economic activity and inflation. OMV raised its 2026 European refining-margin forecast to about $25 per barrel from about $20 and projected refinery utilization above 90%. The IEA projected global refinery runs would reach a seasonal low of 81.3 million barrels per day in October before rising to 84.6 million by year-end.
