Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amy Acton entered Ohio’s Election Day with leads in most late polls, but one survey found a tie and voter responses do not establish whether a campaign ad shifted support.
Survey 160’s poll of likely voters, conducted Oct. 27-Nov. 1, gave Acton 51% and Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy 44%. Survey 160 put Ohio’s margin of error at 5.4 points and cautioned that its weighting created a large design effect. New York Times/Siena College found Acton ahead 49%-43%; YouGov recorded 52%-46%, and InsiderAdvantage had 49%-46%. Poll Vault/Emerson reported 48% for each candidate.
The campaign controversy involved an ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother, Donna Arthur. Ramaswamy said Oct. 29 that the ad’s planned run had ended. The Associated Press reported that AdImpact tracked about $1 million in spending on the spot, compared with an initially announced $4 million.
Suffolk University’s Oct. 21-26 survey of 500 likely voters found Acton at 48% and Ramaswamy at 44%. Among the 360 respondents who had heard about the ad, seven recalled moving their support from Ramaswamy to Acton, while one reported a shift in the opposite direction. Those recollections do not show that the ad caused a wider change in voter support.
Axios reported that a private poll commissioned by an unnamed Republican group showed Acton’s lead at two points before the ad circulated and eight points afterward. Axios said the survey included 800 respondents but did not publish the full methodology or toplines.
At 8:32 a.m. ET (13:32 UTC), Kalshi showed an 82% chance of a Democratic victory in Ohio, while Polymarket US listed Acton at 84%. These were market readings at that time.
The Ohio Secretary of State lists polling hours as 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. ET (11:30 UTC to 00:30 UTC Nov. 4) Tuesday.
