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Outlook for TRY: Danske Bank

Quotes from Danske Bank: -Improving macro fundamentals have created solid upside for the lira in early 2015, which has already been seen in better industrial production numbers and real sector confidence. -However, the i…

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Quotes from Danske Bank:

-Improving macro fundamentals have created solid upside for the lira in early 2015, which has already been seen in better industrial production numbers and real sector confidence.

-However, the improvement seems to have been offset by the deteriorating credibility of monetary policy and political pressure.

-A Fed rate hike could also trigger a run in EM and Turkey assets, raising the risk of a sovereign rate cut on sharply rising uncertainty in the Turkish economy. All the latter is lira negative.

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