U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the federal government’s Alaska Senate lawsuit Sunday, Nov. 1, two days before Tuesday’s midterms, as analysts debated how election uncertainty might affect markets.
The Nov. 3 vote will decide all 435 House seats and about one-third of the Senate. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) complaint argued that voters could confuse incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan with unaffiliated candidate Daniel J. Sullivan. It asked the court to block certification only if Dan S. Sullivan lost and votes for Daniel J. Sullivan could have changed the outcome.
Gleason said DOJ had not explained how it could investigate its allegations while keeping each voter’s selection confidential. The order addressed whether the proposed remedy was workable; it did not find that voters had been confused or that votes changed the race. The Associated Press reported that DOJ filed a notice of appeal.
Trump said on Oct. 23 that he directed DOJ to sue. On Tuesday, Oct. 27, he told a reporter he would respect the midterm results “if they’re honest elections.” The conditional answer did not confirm a plan to challenge the national outcome.
FRED data show the S&P 500 closed Nov. 4, 2020, 2.2% above its Nov. 3 close. The index gained 0.6% between its Jan. 5 and Jan. 6, 2021, closes. The National Archives says violent unrest at the Capitol delayed the Electoral College vote count that day. The figures record the index’s movements but do not establish what portion, if any, came from election events.
Silver Bulletin’s Sunday, Nov. 1, forecast gave Democrats about a 95% chance of retaking the House, with an average projected gain of 25 seats. A separate Senate analysis by Nate Silver put Democrats’ odds near 3-to-1 and said about one-fifth of simulations made control dependent on one state’s outcome.
Barron’s reported that Joe Maher, a markets economist at Capital Economics, said contested elections have historically drawn little reaction from stocks. In the same report, Tallbacken Capital Advisors CEO Michael Purves said political uncertainty could benefit gold, while large technology companies’ investment execution could matter more to stocks than congressional control.
Alaska’s Division of Elections says ranked-choice results will not be available until Nov. 18, after eligible ballots are reviewed and counted.
