Poland's CPI to have decreased slightly in September

A monthly increase in food prices (partly an effect of the drought) was neutralized by a decrease in transport prices (fuel prices dropped on the back of the low Brent oil price) and a gas price cut as of 1 September. On a yearly basis, food price growth may move into positive territory for the first month since April 2014, while transport prices are likely to again subtract around 0.9pp from the headline figure. The CPI is expected tol turn positive in December 2015 or in Q1 16.

"We estimate that deflation in September will print at -0.7%, in line with market consensus and slightly above the flash CPI estimate (-0.8% yoy)", notes Societe Generale.