Polish CPI to have rebounded in March

The Polish deflation in March decreased to -1.3% yoy from -1.6% in February. In monthly terms, prices are likely to have increased by 0.5%, mainly due to an increase in food prices at 0.4% mom, according to Societe Generale. 

In addition, the recent increase in global oil prices has impacted fuel prices in Poland. 

According to the estimates, fuel prices increased by 5.1% mom in March, which should cause growth of 2.9% mom in transport prices and add 0.26pp to the CPI. Still, fuel prices likely caused a drop of nearly 0.8pp in the year-on-year figure. 

The CPI has bottomed out and should gradually increase in the forthcoming months, turning positive again by the end of Q4 15.