Three surveys conducted before British Columbia’s Oct. 24 provincial election show the BC Conservatives leading the governing BC NDP by four to six percentage points, while differences in samples and methods limit direct comparisons.
An Ipsos poll conducted with Global BC put Conservative support at 44% among decided voters, compared with 39% for the NDP and 13% for the BC Green Party. Ipsos surveyed 1,260 adults from Oct. 20-22, drawing 801 respondents from its online panel and interviewing 459 by phone. It reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Compared with Ipsos’ Oct. 7-11 survey, support rose one point for each of the two leading parties and two points for the Greens.
Research Co.’s online poll, fielded Oct. 21-23, found 44% support for the Conservatives, 40% for the NDP and 10% for the Greens among decided likely voters. Its 802 likely-voter sample had a stated margin of error of 3.5 percentage points for the full sample and 3.7 points among decided voters. Pallas Data’s Oct. 22 telephone poll of 702 eligible adults recorded 45% for the Conservatives, 39% for the NDP and 12% for the Greens among decided and leaning voters. Pallas reported a 3.7-point margin of error at a 95% confidence level.
The Writ’s poll-based model, updated Oct. 23, favored the Conservatives in 57 of the province’s 93 ridings and the NDP in 34. The Writ’s model uses published polls to identify the favored party in each district, and its seat figures are forecasts.
Ipsos said turnout and late decisions could shape the outcome. It described a Conservative majority as a possible result, an NDP majority as less likely and the Greens holding the balance of power as another possibility.
Elections BC set Saturday, Oct. 24, as final voting day across the province’s 93 districts; 47 seats would give a party a majority. EconoTimes previously detailed the provincial election schedule.
