Two new U.S. Senate polls put Democratic candidates ahead in Texas and Kansas, giving the party an opening in a chamber race where it needs a four-seat net gain to change control.
In Texas, 49% of likely voters backed state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat, while 43% favored Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton received 49% support and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 45% in a separate CNN-SSRS survey.
SSRS surveyed 923 likely voters in Texas from Oct. 20-27; the margin of sampling error was 4.2 percentage points. Its Kansas survey, conducted Oct. 20-26, included 838 likely voters and had a 4.5-point margin. Despite Hamilton's lead in the results, CNN/SSRS said the Kansas race had no clear leader.
Silver Bulletin's Oct. 29 FLIPR update showed Democratic polling-average leads of 2.5 points in Texas, 3.0 in Ohio, 3.6 in Alaska and 2.4 in Maine. Silver said routine polling uncertainty could erase the narrow advantages.
In an Oct. 30 essay, forecaster Nate Silver said Democrats were treating the possibility of flipping the Senate as “found money,” while expressing caution about the polls. He pointed to rising gas prices, lower approval of President Donald Trump, stronger Democratic enthusiasm and public concern about artificial intelligence as factors behind the polling environment. Those were Silver's explanations, not findings from the Senate surveys.
The U.S. Senate Daily Press page listed the chamber's July 14, 2026, lineup as 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats. CNN's election analysis says Democrats need four net gains to take control. The Federal Election Commission lists Nov. 3 as the general election date.
