New Zealand’s final pre-election polls place National and Labour nearly level and put the Opportunity Party just above Parliament’s entry threshold, leaving its potential role in coalition talks dependent on the Nov. 7 vote.
National led Labour by 0.7 percentage point in the 1News–Verian poll and by 0.5 point in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll.
The 1News–Verian survey put Opportunity at 6.2% and covered 1,006 eligible voters from Oct. 29 to Nov. 2. 1News reported a maximum sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level and said the results reflect views during the survey period, not the election outcome.
Opportunity received 5.8% in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, compared with National’s 28.9% and Labour’s 28.4%; the survey polled 1,000 adults eligible and likely to vote from Oct. 28 to Nov. 3. Curia reported a maximum sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points for a 50% result. Both National-Labour gaps are smaller than the polls’ reported maximum errors, and the surveys used different samples and fieldwork periods.
New Zealand’s Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system gives parties two routes into Parliament: winning at least 5% of the party vote or an electorate seat. Coalition talks are common because one party usually does not secure enough votes to govern alone. Opportunity’s results in both polls exceed the party-vote threshold, but the surveys do not confirm it will cross that mark on election day.
The 1News seat scenarios gave the National-led bloc 58 seats and the Labour-led bloc 56 or 60, depending on Māori electorate results. They estimated seven MPs for Opportunity and said either bloc would need its support under those scenarios. The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll projected 60 seats each for the government and opposition blocs, including seven for Opportunity and assuming no overhang seats.
Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong told 1News that her party would first approach the party with the most seats; if the count were close, it might wait for special votes. Wong said stronger support would give Opportunity “more leverage around the table.”
The party proposes a Citizen’s Income of up to NZ$370 per week for most adults, funded by an annual tax of 1.75% on land value. The proposal has not been enacted. Agence France-Presse reported that the economy and rising living costs have featured heavily in the campaign.
The New Zealand Electoral Commission plans to begin releasing preliminary results at 7 p.m. New Zealand Daylight Time on Nov. 7 (1 a.m. ET, 06:00 UTC). Official results are scheduled for Nov. 27.
