A Monday morning Polymarket snapshot put the chance of a Predict.fun governance token appearing by Oct. 31 at 22%, compared with 97% by Nov. 30.
The Oct. 31 market’s 22% reading was captured at 12:37 a.m. ET Monday, Oct. 26 (04:37 UTC), after moving 10% higher over the prior day. At that snapshot, the Nov. 30 contract stood 14% above its reading 24 hours earlier.
The two markets ask whether the same launch occurs, with each setting its own deadline. Their percentages represent the markets’ implied chances of a launch by each deadline; they do not confirm that Predict.fun has launched a token. The later cutoff gives the event more time to meet the condition.
Settlement turns on whether the governance token is operational by the cutoff and whether the public can transfer and trade it. A future-launch statement alone does not meet the contract’s Yes condition.
Predict.fun’s official information carries the most weight under the terms. The rules also allow consistent coverage from credible news organizations to inform a decision.
