A Reuters survey of more than 500 economists found 2027 inflation forecasts moving higher in 31 of 50 economies, while growth estimates improved in 23, leaving price concerns alongside stronger activity expectations.
The revisions covered 15 of the 21 developed economies surveyed. Across three quarterly poll rounds through October, median inflation forecasts for 2027 rose by 0.7 percentage point in Britain, 0.5 in the euro zone, 0.2 in the United States, 0.4 in India and 0.5 in Brazil. These figures measure shifts in expectations, not the inflation rates economists predict for those markets.
Reuters put global growth at 3.0% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, up from 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively, in its July poll. The IMF’s October outlook projects growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. It sees global headline inflation easing from 4.7% in 2026 to 4.1% in 2027, based on information available through Oct. 1. The measures differ: Reuters reports changes in national forecasts, while the IMF provides a global inflation projection.
The IMF links conflict-related increases in energy and commodity costs to inflation risks and weaker activity. It also says spending tied to artificial intelligence is supporting demand and cross-border commerce.
Janet Henry, HSBC’s global chief economist, told Reuters, “I am getting much more concerned about inflation again.” Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley’s global chief economist, wrote in a note, “The inflation picture has become more complex,” Reuters reported. Reuters also said broader price pressure could prompt further interest-rate increases.
The IMF sees greater strain for economies that depend on imported energy and have limited ties to technology industries. Its cost-of-living analysis says such crises can weaken household purchasing power and deepen poverty and inequality. The Fund finds temporary income support aimed at affected households more cost-efficient than policies designed to hold prices down.
