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Quaest Poll Puts Bolsonaro at 45%, Lula at 44% Before Brazil's Runoff

The poll’s 2-percentage-point margin of error exceeded the gap. Quaest surveyed 2,154 people from Oct. 17-20.

Updated 2 min read
An electronic voting machine is prepared at a public-school polling station in Brasília, Brazil. (AI-generated image / EconoTimes)
An electronic voting machine is prepared at a public-school polling station in Brasília, Brazil. (AI-generated image / EconoTimes)

As Brazil's runoff approaches, a Quaest poll reported Wednesday by The Straits Times put Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro at 45% and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 44%, a difference inside the poll's error range.

The survey's 2-percentage-point margin of error was twice the gap between the candidates. Quaest interviewed 2,154 people from Oct. 17-20. Interviews began a day before the candidates' televised debate on Oct. 18 and ended two days afterward. A week earlier, Bolsonaro had 46% while Lula remained at 44%, The Straits Times reported.

Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) reported the Oct. 4 first-round result with 99.99% of ballot boxes counted: Bolsonaro had 47.03% of valid votes and Lula had 45.16%. EconoTimes previously covered the first-round result that set up Sunday's runoff.

The campaign dispute has also reached the courts. Al Jazeera reported that Bolsonaro's lawyers filed a request with the TSE on Tuesday to annul Lula's candidacy. Bolsonaro's camp alleged that the government used mass WhatsApp messages during the campaign, arguing that this amounted to abuse of power. The filing seeks to bar Lula and Social Communications Minister Sidonio Palmeira from public office for eight years. EconoTimes previously covered the WhatsApp-based challenge to Lula's candidacy.

A Lula campaign source told AFP a planned filing would seek Bolsonaro's disqualification and allege that Meta's algorithms disadvantaged Lula. Al Jazeera reported that the petition had not yet been filed.

On Monday, the TSE gave Meta 24 hours to show that both campaigns were receiving equal treatment, warning that noncompliance could bring a daily fine of about $200,000. Lula's campaign had accused Meta of limiting Lula's online content to help Bolsonaro. Meta said Tuesday it had completed the steps required by the court.

Brazil's runoff vote is scheduled for Sunday, Oct. 25.

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