RBI easing will likely be a slight positive for the INR
The INR has been an exception to the rule of FX weakness in the wake of monetary easing. Lower policy rates have been positive for domestic equities and boosted growth-sensitive inflows. Arguably, the two Reserve Bank of…
The INR has been an exception to the rule of FX weakness in the wake of monetary easing.
Lower policy rates have been positive for domestic equities and boosted growth-sensitive inflows.
Arguably, the two Reserve Bank of India (RBI) rate cuts this year have been supportive of the INR rather than negative.
Standard Chartered notes as follows...
We expect the RBI to cut again in June and in August. However, the backdrop for new monetary policy easing may be a little less benign than for the previous two such policy steps.
Indian government bond (IGB) yields have already rebounded from their early-2015 lows amid higher US Treasury yields and modestly higher Indian inflation.
Amid risks of more volatility in capital inflows in the coming months, we downgrade our short-term recommended FX weighting on the INR to Neutral from Overweight.
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