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Today Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce after meeting monetary policy decisions at 21:00 GMT.
Economic condition -
- New Zealand's economy overall remained robust throughout past years however as of recent facing headwinds due to slow down in China and Europe, two of its major importer.
- Moreover weaker dairy prices and subdued domestic demand pose challenge for policy participants.
- New Zealand GDP remained robust growing at 3.5% y/y and 0.8% q/q as per latest data. Unemployment still low at 5.7% but grew from recent 5.4%.
- As per latest survey, confidence among businesses have deteriorated substantially along with inflation expectation which has hit new record low.
- Debt level is sustainable at close to 35% of GDP.
- However inflation remained subdued and grew only by 0.10% after averaging above 1.5% last year.
RBNZ stance -
- RBNZ has kept interest rates steady at 3.50% since July, highest among developed world.
- Last year it increased rates consecutive four times by 25 basis points till July 2014.
- This year RBNZ hinted that it stands ready to take action, which would be reduction in policy rates.
Expectation and impact -
- After RBNZ comments this year, expectation is high that RBNZ will provide at least 25 basis points rate cut today.
- Kiwi would see heavy appreciation if RBNZ keeps policy steady in today's meeting.
- Kiwi is currently trading at 0.718 against dollar, due to overall weakness in Dollar. key resiatnce lies at 0.727-0.73 and support at 0.7-0.705
- Since a cut is heavily priced in Kiwi may not break below 0.7 mark against dollar and try to pose comeback from the level. However, that move will depend on RBNZ communication and guidance over future policy decision.
