Republicans Flood Safe House Races With Cash as Midterm Risks Rise

Republicans are directing fresh campaign money into dozens of U.S. House races once considered safe as internal polling raises concerns about the party’s position ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

Since September 1, major Republican groups and megadonors have begun spending in at least 39 congressional races where they had not previously invested this cycle, according to a Reuters review of campaign spending. Many Republican incumbents remain ahead in public polling, including lawmakers representing districts President Donald Trump carried comfortably in 2024.

Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 House majority, with one independent caucusing with the party and two seats vacant. Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats to take control of the chamber.

Party officials describe the new spending as an insurance strategy backed by Republicans’ substantial fundraising advantage. Republican groups have reserved at least $888 million in upcoming advertising, compared with at least $666 million for Democrats, according to AdImpact.

Wisconsin Representative Bryan Steil has received about $1.5 million in new support from conservative super PACs this month. Trump won his district by roughly 4.5 percentage points in 2024.

In North Carolina’s 3rd Congressional District, Representative Gregory Murphy received $131,107 in outside conservative spending this month. Trump carried the district by 14 points, while Democrats have spent more than $326,000 targeting Murphy since July.

Economic pressures are contributing to Republican concerns, particularly in agricultural states where higher gasoline, diesel, energy and fertilizer costs are weighing on households and businesses.

Republican-aligned super PACs have also sharply outspent their Democratic counterparts in recent weeks, deploying roughly $309.7 million since Labor Day compared with $174.2 million supporting Democratic candidates.

South Texas Representative Monica De La Cruz is another beneficiary. Republican groups have spent about $2 million since September 5 on texts, direct mail and digital advertising in her district, which Trump won by 18 points in 2024. The Cook Political Report recently shifted the race from “lean Republican” to “tossup.”

Democrats argue the Republican spending expansion signals vulnerability, while Republicans say their financial advantage allows them to protect incumbents and compete aggressively across a broader electoral map.