Reserve Bank of India likely to meet 6% target by early 2016

The inflation trajectory will broadly remain contained, continuing the trend seen in recent months and reflecting a host of factors, including better controls on food prices, persistently idle industrial capacity and a broadly stable INR. 

Also, oil prices have softened in recent weeks and remain a favorable factor for India. Furthermore, the possibility of a flareup in oil prices appears low. 

"The RBI is expected to remain on course to achieve its early-2016 CPI target of 6%", says Barclays. 

In the near term, rainfall during the monsoon season is likely to have an influence on food prices and the overall trajectory of retail inflation. 

"FY 15-16 average CPI inflation is forecasted at 5% (H1 FY 15-16: 4.5%, H2 FY 15-16: 5.5%)", added Barclays.