NAGA’s fourth-quarter 2026 outlook gives a risk-off scenario half its total weight, with the other half split between two dollar paths, making the downside case its largest single outcome.
The scenario assumes weaker stock-market breadth and fading momentum around artificial intelligence. In that case, NAGA expects equities to fall and the dollar to strengthen; gold may dip initially before demand for safe-haven assets returns.
Released Oct. 21, the 38-page outlook assigns 25% to continued dollar strength and 25% to a dollar correction. NAGA market analyst Frank Walbaum set the weights as his assessment, rather than probabilities derived from market prices.
NAGA’s notice classifies the document as a marketing communication and says it is neither independent investment research nor investment advice. The market information in the report mainly reflects data through early October.
The outlook’s watchlist includes Treasury yields above 5.5%, possible escalation in the Gulf and upcoming results from AI companies.
