Robinhood reported a record 16.4 billion event contracts traded in the third quarter of 2026, while crypto activity fell, highlighting a split in demand across two speculative products.
Zerodha CEO Nithin Kamath said in a Nov. 9 blog post that products including crypto trading, stablecoins, derivatives, nonfungible tokens, decentralized finance and prediction markets have brought more people into markets. He pointed to greed, fear of missing out and market excitement as forces drawing interest. “Nothing expands the markets like greed, FOMO, and craziness,” Kamath wrote. He also warned that easier access to speculation can harm individuals and society.
The event-contract total was more than seven times the year-earlier figure. Robinhood said revenue from the contracts climbed more than sixfold to $173 million in the quarter ended Sept. 30. Its third-quarter earnings presentation said $28 million of that revenue came from Rothera.
Crypto notional trading volume, a measure of the value traded, declined 38% year over year to $50 billion. Revenue from crypto transactions fell 55% to $120 million.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) points to the Iowa Presidential Stock Market in 1988 as an early U.S. prediction market and dates its oversight of the sector to 2004. The agency says event contracts can offset economic exposure or give traders a position on an outcome. A trader whose prediction is wrong can lose the stake.
Robinhood warned that litigation, regulatory enforcement or changes in state or federal law could affect its ability to offer event contracts.
