Russian economic indicators for March will confirm the negative growth momentum on Friday. Real wages are expected to decline further due to falling nominal wages and elevated CPI.
Retail sales are expected to decline, echoing the downward trend in real wages, tighter domestic financial conditions for households, and weaker consumer confidence.
Likewise, investment spending will likely show further weakness in March amid weaker domestic demand and falling profitability. Against this backdrop CBR will continue to maintain its growth bias and carry on with further rate cuts, which could lead to depreciation pressures on RUB when the Fed starts lifting the policy rate.
"In Poland, we expect NBP to remain on hold on Wednesday. Separately, we expect a slight improvement in March CPI (Wed) to -1.4% y/y due to an easing of food deflation, while Polish inflation will remain the lowest in the region. Despite the deflation and recent PLN appreciation, we think rising employment and car production suggest possible growth improvement; and could ease the pressure on the NBP to loosen rates further", Said Barclays in a report on Monday
