Ryanair expects its fuel bill to rise by about €2 billion ($2.2 billion) in fiscal 2028, putting pressure on European airfares as the airline’s lower-cost fuel hedges expire.
The estimate applies to the year beginning in April 2027 and is based on current forward prices, the airline said. Ryanair said higher short-haul fares are unlikely to recover the full increase, leaving it with added costs even if passengers pay more.
The projected increase reflects a change in Ryanair’s fuel-price protection. Hedges cover 80% of its needs through March 2027 at about $67 a barrel. Coverage falls to 25% for fiscal 2028, at about $95 a barrel.
CEO Michael O’Leary told CNBC he expects European airfares to rise 10% to 20% in 2027 as fuel hedges expire. His fare estimate concerns airlines across Europe; the €2 billion fuel estimate concerns Ryanair.
Ryanair reported €2.15 billion in profit after tax for the six months ended Sept. 30, 2026, down 15% from a year earlier. Most of its fuel was still hedged during that period, but the price of the 20% left unhedged doubled. Average fares fell 4%, while operating costs rose 10%.
Passenger numbers rose 6% to 125.8 million. Ryanair also cited the end of supplier compensation as a factor in the profit decline. The airline said its existing fuel hedges give it a cost advantage, though its lower-priced contracts will roll off ahead of summer 2027.
Ryanair is seeking savings through airport negotiations, lower crewing ratios and greater use of artificial intelligence. It also raised the possibility of temporary pay freezes as labor agreements come up for renewal.
O’Leary warned in October that higher ticket prices might still leave airline margins under pressure. Ryanair said autumn and Christmas bookings will have a significant bearing on its next quarterly fare outcome.
