Iran unlikely to agree on production freeze.
Saudi Arabia would export less oil in summer months in case of production freeze.
Oil is trading near a 12-year low as record stockpiles continue to swell more than a year after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to keep pumping to defend market share amid a global glut. But for today, U.S. crude was up about $1.25, from day lows at 28.71 to current $29.87 a barrel, by 15:15GMT.
Sharp price falls were yesterday's market response to the joint decision of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela to freeze their oil production at the January level for the time being. This is because production will continue to exceed demand significantly for now, meaning that crude oil stocks will continue to grow. How prices now perform will depend to a major extent on the signals sent out from Iraq and Iran.
Coupled with record Russian output and U.S. shale fields producing more oil and gas than previously estimated, prices could slide below $25 a barrel before the rout is over, Currie said last week.
There are indications that Iraq might be willing to cooperate, in which case Iraq's rapid production growth of almost 1 million barrels per day last year would at least come to an end. That said, Iran is bound to want to up its output following its long battle for sanctions to be lifted.
So far, it has stated that it plans to scale up its production by as much as 1 million barrels per day before the year is out, though this is not a realistic target. If it were to reduce this goal to 500,000 barrels per day.
