India’s provisional consumer inflation rose above the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance level in October, as State Bank of India (SBI) Research reportedly halved its expected December rate hike to 25 basis points.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said provisional consumer price inflation rose 6.09% year over year in October 2026, up from 5.54% in September 2026. Food inflation reached 8.94%. India’s inflation framework sets a 4% target with a 2%-6% tolerance band, retained through March 31, 2031.
The Economic Times reported that an SBI Research note dated Nov. 12 lowered the bank’s forecast for a December increase to 25 basis points from 50 basis points. The report linked the change to easing pressure on the rupee, improved external conditions and renewed foreign inflows. SBI’s public research index listed a Nov. 11 Ecowrap report as its latest November entry on Nov. 13.
The same report said SBI Research expected inflation to stay above 6% in November before easing. It assigned equal odds to the terminal repo rate reaching 6% or stopping at 5.75%. The November inflation figure is a forecast. The RBI has not announced its December rate decision, so the 25-basis-point call remains a research forecast reported by The Economic Times.
At its Oct. 5-7 meeting, the RBI raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and shifted its stance to calibrated tightening. Its resolution said future decisions would depend on the growth and inflation outlook and described a near-term hike or pause as possible moves. The October CPI release was published Nov. 12, after that rate decision.
The RBI’s next meeting is scheduled for Dec. 2-4, while the ministry has scheduled the public release of November CPI data for Dec. 14.
