Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret identified a possible signal for pound gains against the dollar, FXStreet reported Oct. 20, as mixed U.K. labor figures drew attention to the Bank of England’s next rate decision.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) put unemployment at 4.7% for June to August 2026, down 0.1 percentage point from the preceding nonoverlapping quarter. Regular pay, which excludes bonuses, rose 3.7% from a year earlier. The agency cautioned against reading too much into short-term changes in its survey estimates.
Other measures showed a softer jobs picture. The ONS estimated 691,000 vacancies from July to September 2026, 21,000 fewer than from April to June. Its August payroll count was 111,000 below the year-earlier level. The agency said some smaller businesses linked their hiring restraint to higher labor costs.
Outside the pandemic, vacancies had not been at or below 691,000 since July to September 2014, the ONS said. That longer comparison puts the decline in openings alongside the lower unemployment estimate.
Reuters reported the pound trading at $1.3350, up 0.4%, in a 4:30 a.m. ET dispatch after the Oct. 20 jobs release, as earlier EconoTimes coverage of the market reaction detailed.
FXStreet reproduced Osborne and Theoret’s description of a possible “bull flag” in the pound-dollar chart. The strategists’ view was that the pattern might precede another short-term rise in sterling. Their chart assessment comes against labor data that show both weaker hiring and continued pay growth.
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene argued in an Oct. 20 speech that slack in the labor market may be less than it appears. She said an energy shock could continue to affect wages and prices and made the case for acting before those effects take hold.
Greene was among three policymakers who voted in September to raise Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage point. The other six held it at 3.75%. September inflation figures are scheduled for release Oct. 21, followed by the Bank of England’s next rate decision Nov. 5.
