Scotland’s onshore wind developers are urging ministers to set a goal of at least 30 gigawatts (GW) by 2040, an expansion commissioned modeling says could lift economic output and employment.
The Scottish Onshore Wind Developers Forum commissioned Biggar Economics to assess the proposal. Its 30-GW scenario could generate £4.2 billion in Scottish gross value added (GVA), a measure of economic contribution, while average employment in development, construction and operation could be 6,100 higher from 2034 to 2040.
Scotland has about 10.7 GW of onshore wind installed. The Independent reported that projects under construction or development could raise installed capacity to about 20 GW around 2032.
The same scenario projects £44 million in annual community benefit payments and £88 million in business-rate income by 2040. The report also cites recent analysis indicating that a 30-GW outcome could reduce costs across the UK power system for consumers.
Potential gains also include work for supply-chain businesses and benefits for communities that host wind farms. The report points to Scotland’s record of delivering onshore wind as support for further expansion.
The analysis describes two separate post-2030 issues. It says Scotland has no ambition specified beyond 2030. Separately, the report reads the UK Government’s Clean Power 2030 plan as allowing for an effective Scottish onshore wind cap of 21.2 GW.
Simon Cleary, Biggar Economics’ energy transition director, warned that a cap after 2030 could put thousands of jobs at risk. That is a warning about potential losses, not a forecast of confirmed job cuts.
Scottish Energy Minister Stephen Gethins said onshore wind would remain “central to Scotland’s energy future well beyond 2030.” He also pointed to UK decisions on strategic energy planning, grid connections and price support as factors that will influence deployment after 2030.
The Scottish Government is preparing a refreshed energy strategy. Gethins said it would continue working with the sector as UK decisions are made.
