A Silver Bulletin analysis says FLIPR projects a six-point median margin gap between statewide Senate and governor races in 2026, even as polling shows different leaders in Michigan and Texas.
The six-point figure describes the projected median difference between margins in the two kinds of race; it does not imply every state will show the same relationship. Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson published the analysis Friday, Oct. 23. They said FLIPR's overall forecast has moved little since early October, as polling remained steady and fewer surveys arrived than in previous cycles.
Michigan displays one contrast: Benson's governor-race lead is about 4.2 points larger than El-Sayed's lead in the Senate contest, the authors write. Texas has opposite leaders across its races: James Talarico is ahead of Ken Paxton by 2.4 points in the Senate contest, while Texas Gov. Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa by 2.7 points in the governor contest.
Silver and McKown-Dawson say national party politics increasingly shape voting, leaving gubernatorial candidates less able to overcome their states' partisan lean. They also suggest candidate appeal could contribute to the polling differences, citing Paxton's possible weakness and the chance that El-Sayed's progressive politics could hurt him.
Decision Desk HQ figures cited by the authors put the median margin gap between Senate and governor contests at about 25 points in 1990. For major statewide contests, the median gap was 13 points in 2014 and eight points in 2022. Those averages still allowed large splits that year: Republican Phil Scott won Vermont's governor race by 47 points, while Democrat Peter Welch's Senate victory margin was 40 points. Kansas also elected a Republican senator and a Democratic governor in 2022.
The authors said most of the forecast's remaining uncertainty comes from potential polling error rather than late shifts in the polls.
