Sluggish Chinese activity data and USD strength to keep pressure on AUD
A 17.5K gain is expected in employment (consensus: 15.0k; last: +15.6k) with unemployment rounding down to 6.2% (consensus: 6.3%; unemployment was 6.254% in February). A fall in job ads in March suggests there is some do…
A 17.5K gain is expected in employment (consensus: 15.0k; last: +15.6k) with unemployment rounding down to 6.2% (consensus: 6.3%; unemployment was 6.254% in February).
A fall in job ads in March suggests there is some downside risk to the forecast, although employment has not tracked ads closely for some time due to methodological changes to the survey. Chinese data and the USD's move should be the key drivers of AUD in the coming week.
A weaker-than-expected outcome for Chinese activity data will likely exert more pressure on iron ore prices as well as on AUD and rates.
"We expect the RBA to cut rates by another 25bp to 2.00% in May. Meanwhile, the latest Bloomberg survey shows that all 26 economists polled are expecting the same, while the OIS market is pricing in a 70% probability of a cut", Said Barclays in a report on Monday
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