Writer Noah Smith argues that Vice President JD Vance’s criticism of gross domestic product (GDP) could weaken opposition to trade and immigration restrictions even if they reduce U.S. output.
Smith made the argument in a July 8 essay. GDP, as defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), tallies the value of goods and services produced by the economy after subtracting inputs used to make them. The measure leaves out work done without pay for oneself or family; such activity does not generate a market sale for the national accounts.
The Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimates that unpaid household work was worth $5.6 trillion to $6 trillion in 2024, around one-fifth of GDP. To value the work, GAO matched 2024 wage estimates with records of household time use collected from 2021 through 2024. Its main calculation excludes secondary child care.
Smith also invokes a U.S. historical comparison: during a period when GDP per capita nearly tripled, he says, social solidarity increased. He uses the example to argue against treating prosperity and community well-being as competing goals.
The opioid epidemic is another example of harm extending beyond GDP. A Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia review says research has linked the crisis to damage in labor markets, consumer finance and municipal finance. It cited a Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) estimate of $696 billion in nominal economic costs in 2018, or 3.4% of GDP, and more than $2.5 trillion from 2015 through 2018.
That total includes a value assigned to lives lost, so it is not a finding that U.S. GDP fell by $696 billion. The Philadelphia Fed says the relationship can run in both directions: opioid abuse may worsen local economic conditions, while those conditions may also contribute to abuse.
Smith sums up his view: “Making Americans poorer won’t make our society better.”
