U.S. Social Security trustees project the retirement and survivor fund will exhaust its reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032, after which continuing program income would cover 78% of scheduled benefits.
The projection applies to the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund. The trustees’ estimate means a 22% gap between scheduled benefits and projected income; it does not forecast that all payments would end.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) announced a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 on Oct. 14. The calculation compares the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers in the third quarters of 2025 and 2026. SSA estimates the average retired worker’s monthly benefit will rise by about $75, from $2,095 to $2,170, starting in January 2027. The agency said the change will affect nearly 72 million Social Security beneficiaries and about 7.3 million Supplemental Security Income recipients.
Fox Business reported Oct. 17 that Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican, linked the increase to a faster reserve drawdown. “I think it's going to drain the trust fund that much faster,” Cassidy said, according to the outlet. The trustees did not calculate how much the 2027 COLA changes the projected depletion date.
Cassidy cited a 28.5% benefit cut in a July Senate floor speech. The trustees’ OASI estimate implies a 22% shortfall. Their separate, hypothetical projection for the combined OASI and Disability Insurance (DI) funds puts reserve depletion in the third quarter of 2034, when income would cover 83% of scheduled benefits, a 17% gap. The trustees say a change in law would be needed to combine the funds.
The trustees attributed the weaker long-term outlook mainly to lower fertility and net-immigration assumptions, as well as legislation expected to reduce future income-tax revenue from Social Security benefits. Cassidy has separately proposed investing $1.5 trillion over five years in a fund outside the Social Security trust funds, which he says would supplement payroll-tax income. He and Sen. Dick Durbin also introduced the PROMISE Act, which Cassidy describes as a process for Congress to consider options.
SSA says it will announce the next COLA in October 2027.
