Jan Groen of Societe Generale estimates that U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 0.27% to 0.33% in October, FXStreet reported, as analysts await producer data that could sharpen the estimate.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a 0.3% monthly rise in the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes food and energy. October was the third consecutive month with an increase at that pace. Overall consumer prices rose 0.4%, compared with 0.6% in September.
Groen’s projected range centers on an increase of about 0.30%, according to FXStreet’s account of his analysis. He estimated a 0.28% rise in PCE housing prices and an increase of about 0.25% in core goods prices. The range depends in part on prices for services outside housing. Those figures are estimates for the PCE measure; the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has not released its October results.
The CPI report offers a separate view of October prices. Its shelter index rose 0.3%, easing from a 0.4% increase in September. Medical care prices rose 0.3%, while prices for used cars and trucks fell 1.2%.
BLS did not publish annual changes for most October CPI categories. A lapse in appropriations meant it did not collect survey data for October 2025, leaving those categories without the data needed for a year-earlier comparison.
The latest BEA report showed that core PCE prices rose 0.3% in September from August and 3.1% from a year earlier. EconoTimes previously covered the September core PCE reading. The Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation goal applies to the annual change in the overall PCE price index, rather than the monthly core measure.
Groen expects the October producer price report to provide more information for his PCE estimate, FXStreet reported. BLS is scheduled to release those figures Nov. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET. BEA’s official October PCE report is due Nov. 25 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
