South Africa's current account deficit to highlight ongoing vulnerability
South Africa's current account (C/A) deficit for Q4-2014 will be released on Tuesday. According to Standard Chartered research forecasts: We forecast a still-wide deficit of 5.5% of GDP (market consensus: 5.8%). While mo…
South Africa's current account (C/A) deficit for Q4-2014 will be released on Tuesday. According to Standard Chartered research forecasts:
We forecast a still-wide deficit of 5.5% of GDP (market consensus: 5.8%).
While most oil importers will have benefited from lower oil prices in Q4, South Africa's Q4 trade deficit more than doubled relative to the same period a year prior.
With mining and manufacturing both hobbled by the electricity crisis, there has been little evidence of an export recovery since then.
The traditional year-end improvement in the C/A income balance may provide relief, but it is unlikely to be enough.
With the South African rand (ZAR) under pressure, a wide C/A deficit will highlight its ongoing vulnerability to a reversal of capital flows.
Even against a weak growth backdrop, import growth will likely outpace export growth according to Treasury forecasts.
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