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South Korea's inflation rate accelerated sharply in May, reaching its highest level in more than two years and strengthening expectations that the Bank of Korea (BOK) could raise interest rates as soon as July.
According to data released Tuesday by the Ministry of Data and Statistics, South Korea's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.1% year-over-year in May, up from 2.6% in April. The figure exceeded the 3.0% growth forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters and marked the strongest inflation reading since March 2024.
The latest surge in consumer inflation was largely driven by rising energy costs linked to tensions in the Middle East. Prices of petroleum products jumped 24.2% compared with a year earlier, while international airfare climbed 33.5%, reflecting the impact of higher global oil prices.
The Bank of Korea warned that inflation is likely to remain around the 3% level in the near term as rising energy costs spread across other sectors of the economy. The central bank said it will continue monitoring inflation trends closely ahead of its next policy meeting on July 16.
Last week, the BOK raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.2% and signaled a possible shift toward tighter monetary policy. Policymakers are aiming to contain inflationary pressures and stabilize the weakening South Korean won.
Market analysts believe further inflation increases are possible if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue. Some economists forecast inflation could rise into the mid-3% range under a prolonged conflict scenario.
South Korea’s policy-sensitive treasury bond yield rose 6 basis points to 3.847%, its highest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, the finance ministry estimated inflation would have reached approximately 3.7% in May without fuel price caps introduced nationwide in March.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also accelerated to 2.5% from 2.2% in April, signaling broader price pressures across the economy. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.5%, exceeding market expectations of a 0.3% increase and highlighting persistent inflation risks in South Korea.
