A Reuters poll puts South Korea’s third-quarter GDP growth at 0.7% from the prior quarter as semiconductor exports surge, while the annual pace is expected to ease.
Reuters said its Oct. 14-23, 2026, survey of 16 economists produced a median estimate of 0.7% for seasonally adjusted growth from the second quarter. That would be above the official 0.6% gain recorded in April-June. On a year-on-year basis, the poll put July-September growth at 3.0%, against 3.7% in Q2; estimates for quarterly growth ranged from 0.5% to 1.6%. The quarterly and annual rates compare output with different periods. The figures remain forecasts until the Bank of Korea releases its official estimate.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources put South Korea’s September exports at $120.94 billion, 83.5% above a year earlier. Semiconductor shipments totaled $60.30 billion after rising 262.8%, close to half of all exports.
On Oct. 22, the Bank of Korea (BOK) kept its base rate at 3.00%. It identified semiconductors as a key source of further export and investment growth, while saying the sector’s expansion might not translate fully into domestic demand. The bank also said growth in 2026 and 2027 was expected to be considerably higher than its August forecasts of 3.3% and 2.9%, respectively, but gave no revised figures.
Reuters reported that high borrowing costs and household debt were weighing on consumption, and described the recovery as increasingly uneven. Jeong Woo Park, Nomura’s Asia economist, told Reuters, “The question is whether we will see benefits from the export sector.” Reuters said Park identified fiscal policy as one possible channel for export gains to reach domestic demand.
The BOK’s advance estimate for third-quarter GDP is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET Monday, Oct. 26 (23:00 UTC), or 8 a.m. Korea Standard Time Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026.
