Spain’s Social Security system recorded a €7.387 billion deficit in 2025 after transfers, while Fedea’s broader pre-transfer estimate was €69.783 billion, showing how the financing picture changes with accounting scope.
The Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration said the deficit equaled 0.4% of gross domestic product, down from €9.834 billion in 2024. Recognized nonfinancial revenue was €232.782 billion, compared with €240.169 billion in obligations. Contribution income reached €176.918 billion, an increase of 6.9% from the previous year. Transfers totaled €52.990 billion, including €47.815 billion from the state and autonomous agencies.
Fedea’s expanded account covers Social Security, collaborating mutual associations and Clases Pasivas, Spain’s civil-service pension system. Its preliminary 2025 estimate put income at €249.504 billion, including €61.342 billion in current state transfers, and spending at €257.945 billion. That left an €8.441 billion deficit after transfers, or €69.783 billion when current state transfers were excluded. Fedea based the estimate on budget execution through November and adjustments for the full year.
The two figures use different institutional boundaries and answer different questions. The ministry’s result shows the balance in its Social Security accounts after transfers; Fedea’s larger figure removes current transfers from a broader account. Fedea says the system’s income excluding state transfers covered contributory spending through 2011; from 2012, general-tax transfers helped finance those benefits.
The ministry linked part of the increase in transfers to funding for the Minimum Vital Income and minimum-pension supplements. Fedea says transfers draw on general revenue, may partly involve borrowing and compete with other public spending for funds.
The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), Spain’s fiscal watchdog, projected average pension spending after revenue measures at 13.0% of GDP over 2022–2050, below the 13.3% threshold in current law. It put average gross spending at 14.6% of GDP, with revenue measures reducing the figure by 1.6 percentage points. AIReF said compliance with the pension spending rule alone cannot establish whether the public finances are sustainable. In a separate scenario with no policy changes, it projected public debt at 123% of GDP in 2050.
Spain’s general election is scheduled for Nov. 29, according to the official gazette.
